last year's GCSE results reveal a unique cohort of students – the first to have navigated their entire secondary education during the Covid-19 pandemic. These students, who largely began Year 7 in September 2019, experienced a brief period of normalcy before facing widespread school closures and the shift to online learning in the spring of 2020. The following two years were marked by significant disruptions, with varying lengths of online lessons and disparities in access to technology.
A Generation Defined by Disruption
These students are unique, the first to spend every secondary year in the midst, or the wake, of the pandemic. In Wales and Northern Ireland, they are also the first to experience a return to pre-pandemic grading standards.
GCSE Grades Fall for Third Year Running
The overall GCSE pass rate (grades 4/C and above) across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland has declined for the third consecutive year. This year, 67.6% of all grades were at 4/C or above, down from 68.2% last year, effectively returning to 2019 levels. This figure is significantly lower than the pass rates in 2020 and 2021, when exams were cancelled and results were based on teacher assessments.
The Steepest Drop in Northern Ireland
While GCSE grades have fallen across all three nations, the decline is most pronounced in Northern Ireland. The proportion of GCSEs marked at 4/C or above this year is:
67.4% in England (down from 67.8% in 2023)
61.7% in Wales (down from 64.5%)
82% in Northern Ireland (down from 86.6%)
While some students may be disappointed, this decrease reflects a deliberate effort to align grades with pre-pandemic levels. In England, the exams regulator aimed for this return to 2019 levels last year, although grades remained slightly higher. This year, the pass rate is roughly the same as in 2019. However, Wales and Northern Ireland aimed to bring grades back in line with pre-Covid levels this year.
Regional Disparities in England Widen
The regional divide in England continues to grow. London remains the highest-performing region, with 72.5% of entries marked at 4/C or above, while the West Midlands has the lowest pass rate at 63.1%. The gap between the highest and lowest performing regions has widened, from 6.8 percentage points in 2019 to 9.4 percentage points this year.
This trend reflects a broader North-South divide that predates the pandemic but has been exacerbated by it. Every region in the South has seen an increase in pass rates compared to 2019, while four out of five regions in the North and Midlands have lower pass rates.
The Northern Powerhouse think tank attributes these regional variations to "differences... in the proportions of long-term disadvantaged children by region." The pandemic has disproportionately affected disadvantaged pupils, and experts warn that it could take a decade to close the gap to pre-pandemic levels.
Resits Expected to Rise
The pass rate among 16-year-olds sitting English language and maths in England is slightly worse than last year but better than 2019. However, due to population growth, the number of students failing these subjects is higher than in both 2019 and 2023.
In England, students must achieve a grade 4 or above in English and maths to progress to further study. Those who do not achieve this benchmark can resit these exams while pursuing other studies. Colleges anticipate a further increase in resit student numbers this year, following expansions to class sizes and the hiring of exam halls to accommodate the rise in 2023.
Data indicates that approximately:
182,000 16-year-olds will need to resit English language.
176,000 will need to resit maths.
The number of 17-year-olds taking English language and maths resits also suggests a growing trend, with pass rates at just 22.1% in English language and 18.3% in maths.
The Association of Colleges and the Association of School and College Leaders have raised concerns about the effectiveness and impact of compulsory GCSE resits, with the latter describing them as “demoralising”.